The Update: The Explanatory

Setting the Edge: Episode 42, Setting the Hedge Week 1
September 6, 2017
The 0-2 Nail in the Coffin and Your Team’s Odds to Get There
September 8, 2017

The Update: The Explanatory

The Update is a series of adjusted statistics used to measure the efficiency of NFL teams relative to the average team. Positive numbers will always mean a good thing for a given team, offensively or defensively, while negative numbers will always mean a bad thing for a given team, offensively or defensively.

Everything is set to the baseline of whatever the NFL average is at the time. That means that if the NFL throws five interceptions every 100 throws, but Team X only throws two interceptions on 200 passes, Team X is eight interceptions above expectation (+8.00.)

Below are the terms that you’re going to need to know.

ANY/A Value-How many ANY/A yards above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on ANY/A.

Adj Comp % Value-How many completions above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on adjusted completion percentage. Adjusted completion is measured based on dropbacks, not just pass attempts.

Yards/Comp Value-How many yards above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on yards per completion.

Sack % Value-How many sacks above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on sack percentage.

Interception % Value-How many interceptions above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on interception percentage.

Run % Value-How many carries above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on the percentage of plays being run plays.

TFL % Value-How many tackles at the line of scrimmage and behind the line of scrimmage above/below average an offense/defense is relative to the NFL average, based on tackle for loss percentage. We including 0-yard runs in with the tackle for loss data.

Yards/Rush+ Value-How many rushing yards above/below average and offense/defense is on carries that go beyond the line of scrimmage relative to the NFL average, based on yards per carry beyond the line of scrimmage.

How good is my pass defense? What is the difference between the 14th and 17th completion percentage? Which team has a low completion percentage but a high yards per completion mark? Which defense gets to the quarterback the most often? Which teams throw the most interceptions per play? Which run defenses are being hidden by playing in shootouts? Which offensive lines are allowing the most tackles for a loss on average this year? Which backs are doing the most with the least on the ground?

We now have tangible answers to those questions and more. As an example, here is what the 2016 season looked like:

Offense

NameANY/A ValueRAdj Comp % ValueRYards/Comp ValueRSack % ValueRInterception % ValueRRun % ValueRTFL % ValueRYards/Rush+ ValueR
ARI-373.1623-24.892776.6614-1.3721-2.3223-27.1927-5.492191.6310
ATL1580.27133.23714.41-3.89245.2759.2611-9.7728239.953
BAL-624.272716.278-640.87328.077-0.7819-47.5932-2.3519-40.7518
BUF-192.1321-22.7424-22.8418-16.01314.11941.4420.6615608.21
CAR-527.8525-49.6432483.532-1.5122-6.222814.3871.0914-107.9921
CHI-106.7119-1.5218201.3195.868-6.4529-8.22204.44999.249
CIN147.93155.391672.8615-6.16264.91710.7493.5912-128.3224
CLE-1194.5631-37.8331-141.9123-29.4932-0.4718-32.2331-3.9920289.32
DAL706.47521.61797.85121.47144.92644.5118.942192.155
DEN-204.1422-23.172671.4516-4.76252.0611-2.5916-7.725-212.5128
DET237.131013.3613-73.4719-0.6183.4910-32.0930-7.223-83.4319
GNB564.86714.1112-128.9222.781264-28.528-5.8522166.326
HOU-1080.3630-18.1423-506.57293.4711-2.862511.89815.945-158.4326
IND207.6612-2.8619296.065-7.7828-1.5820-7.531916.873-227.9730
JAX-566.3626-22.8625-261.93284.0710-1.8922-22.67264.0110-31.9817
KAN207.891121.836-218.94251.34154.3585.6513-7.492481.6312
LAR-1450.0232-35.3329-227.7126-15.2629-7.530-9.5622-9.6327-225.8629
MIA185.851414.989126.4511-0.7619-4.162618.816-14.229233.324
MIN69.351742.332-579.5431-1.84238.42-18.5724-15.5630-275.2131
NOR878.02355.81-94.532113.494016-29.672923.371-119.8423
NWE1355.27227.25279.7469.11610.27128.395-1.718-166.8227
NYG-92.58188.8914-261.452713.883-2.7124-10.81233.0813-287.4332
NYJ-937.0229-36.333093.6513-1.2620-12.5326.061216.84-83.920
OAK641.49614.4511-158.72416.4116.1234.04143.81188.5911
PHI-690.1628-1.1717-524.34304.919-0.32170.28150.316-7.7816
PIT405.95814.671053.41714.592-1.8121-4.78184.878-0.8115
SDG124.816-16.7422425.833-0.4716-7.8331-8.9121-7.726-116.6622
SEA186.71136.4215245.957-6.93270.9914-4.7217-19.423143.9613
SFO-518.3324-32.4228-91.820-15.97301.51228.734-0.6317103.518
TAM-125.6720-8.9521135.3310-0.5317-4.862710.2410-20.1332-141.5325
TEN337.739-8.8620233.3781.8130.411534.0639.87136.937
WAS845.97432.954325.66413.3451.4613-19.752511.23642.4914

Example: Oakland +16.41 in Sack % Value means that the Raiders had 16.41 fewer sacks than expected relative to the amount of dropbacks they had in 2016 and the league’s sack percentage.

Defense

NameANY/A ValueRAdj Comp % ValueRYards/Comp ValueRSack % ValueRInterception % ValueRRun % ValueRTFL % ValueRYards/Rush+ ValueR
ARI640.28213.8810325.08213.6811.2814-9.242014.316134.916
ATL-87.621-20.226259.786-4.826-2.752562.043-4.9318-81.7427
BAL292.66-11.5422234.259-4.07245.01119.1899.658132.77
BUF42.241630.524-299.55287.2850.2515-54.8330-1.5316-135.4629
CAR51.5615-27.483096.33149.8722.87947.284165-18.6517
CHI-125.4222-8.241970.62164.248-4.1428-32.0928-5.9719-30.9218
CIN349.215-3.618211.8810-3.11223.6279.3111-7.5522-55.4822
CLE-728.632-14.3424-273.7426-6.8829-2.1822-63.2931-21.5230-31.7719
DAL-135.3423-43.9631391.961-2.5320-5.283169.6918.06913.7512
DEN1020.01167.421310.4547.7441.3113-44.0429-37.132205.054
DET-633.4230-94.9832305.065-7.1730-2.29233.3816-12.2264.114
GNB-296.2725-11.1420-339.02304.7673.94525.7481.581527.3111
HOU282.24714.199195.912-0.917-0.8219-10.3221-8.9223122.918
IND-543.8127-20.0725-145.2122-2.3619-5.1306.3914-15.728-80.1426
JAX63.38142.6615256.87-0.6816-5.4832-27.35277.3910111.089
KAN203.141132.823-203.5624-8.11324.623-4.3319-7.4721-44.6120
LAR-136.0824-2227322.793-4.4125-3.1226-1.51835.312-124.328
MIA111.72133.821472.5215-3.05212.6411-21.93257.3311-363.132
MIN572.56326.455234.3587.0361.41120.1817-23.4131161.265
NOR-689.6331-22.9629-325.2129-5.327-4.082713.69103.081413.2113
NWE253.5689.2513141.5213-2.2818-0.441737.226-11.9325218.323
NYG545.29438.82-59.7518-3.36232.791035.277-6.9220300.791
NYJ-586.8829-11.5221-175.7423-5.9928-4.2229-21.562443.241-72.6524
OAK-463.62612.3611-601.5632-7.59313.926-19.6723-16.05291.0115
PHI24.221723.426-259.92250.2143.4886.671322.373-215.7730
PIT218.289-12.5923204.97111.7211-0.441837.2254.0713-73.5325
SDG214.42101.7516-82.3820-0.53154.8327.021219.094-17.316
SEA203.071219.148-61.37198.553-1.420-25.422612.677261.492
SFO-559.72810.5412-393.92310.9913-1.8621-98.4532-1024-311.1231
TAM-63.71201.4117-289.74274.294.484-14.6822-4.3317-46.6121
TEN-41.371819.357-144.94211.0712-2.432463.6525.851252.8510
WAS-63.4219-22.942821.34171.7810-0.42164.7915-14.4827-57.9823

Example: San Francisco -98 in Run % Value means that the 49ers had 98 more carries ran on them than expected relative to the amount of defensive snaps they had in 2016 and the league’s run percentage average.

We can now specifically look at head-to-head matchups and identify where teams should be outplaying opponents. For example, below is the 2017 season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots.

Kansas City Defense vs. New England Offense

TeamSideANY/A ValueAdj Comp % ValueYards/Comp ValueSack % ValueInterception % ValueRun % ValueTFL % ValueYards/Rush+ Value
NWEO1355.2727.2279.749.1110.2728.39-1.7-166.82
KAND203.1432.82-203.56-8.114.62-4.33-7.47-44.61
EdgeNWEKANNWENWENWENWENWEKAN
Per Game Edge72.01-0.3530.211.080.352.050.36-7.64
UnitANY/A YardsCompletionsPassing YardsSacksInterceptionsCarriesTackles For LossYards Beyond LOS

Kansas City Offense vs. New England Defense

TeamSideANY/A ValueAdj Comp % ValueYards/Comp ValueSack % ValueInterception % ValueRun % ValueTFL % ValueYards/Rush+ Value
KANO207.8921.83-218.941.344.355.65-7.4981.63
NWED253.569.25141.52-2.28-0.4437.22-11.93218.32
EdgeNWEKANNWEKANKANNWEKANNWE
Per Game Edge-2.850.79-22.530.230.3-1.970.28-8.54
UnitANY/A YardsCompletionsPassing YardsSacksInterceptionsCarriesTackles For LossYards Beyond LOS

We will update these numbers throughout the season under “The Update.”

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